RUSSIA'S EXPANDING INFLUENCE IN CENTRAL ASIA: STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS IN THE AFTERMATH OF THE UKRAINE WAR

Abstract

Russia's influence in Central Asia has long been a cornerstone of its foreign policy, but the war in Ukraine has reshaped global power dynamics, presenting both challenges and opportunities for the region. This study examines Russia's expanding influence in Central Asia in the aftermath of the Ukraine war and analyzes its strategic implications for regional and global security. The research adopts a qualitative approach, utilizing content analysis, case studies, and expert interviews. It reviews political, economic, and security data to assess Russia’s evolving strategies and their impact on local governments. Data is analyzed using thematic analysis, focusing on Russia's diplomatic, economic, and military actions in the region. The findings reveal that Russia has reinforced its position in Central Asia through increased economic partnerships, military alliances, and political leverage. However, the war has also prompted Central Asian countries to diversify their external ties, particularly with China and the West. The study recommends that Central Asian nations balance their relationships with Russia while strengthening regional institutions to safeguard sovereignty and security. Furthermore, Russia must adapt its approach to maintain influence in the face of competing powers. Future geopolitical shifts, driven by China's Belt and Road Initiative and Western policies, may alter Russia's role in the region. In conclusion, while Russia’s influence in Central Asia remains significant, the region’s ability to navigate the changing geopolitical landscape will shape its future.

Key Words: Russia, Central Asia, influence, Ukraine war, geopolitics, security,